Monday, 13 July 2020

What to do about China in 2020?


One thing that Donald Trump correctly recognised was China’s gaming of the rest of the World, particularly since the ascent of the current Chinese President.  Unlike other leaders, President Trump acted.

In essence, since China came out of its largely self-imposed isolation, their objective has been to modernise whilst maintaining full control by the Communist Party.  As we know this has been hugely successful in economic terms, but since the arrival of President Xi and now President Trump, it has turned sour.  Prior to President Xi the Communist Party’s strategy was to develop economically whilst keeping a low profile internationally.  President Xi has dispensed with the low profile element and continues to intimidate other countries whilst providing loans to poor and developing countries under the umbrella of economic development.  Subtle, it is not.

You could say the rest of the World walked into this situation without realising it.  It is unfortunate that Trump’s America is showing signs of decay whilst other mature democracies are also struggling.  This allows China and other autocratic nations to try and adopt the diplomatic moral high ground.

Interestingly the COVID19 pandemic could be another catalyst which is potentially negative for China in that many foreign companies now realise they have too many eggs in the Chinese basket.  President Trump’s trade war has fully exposed China to the World for the first time.  So, it’s not surprising that China has become more high profile.

The Chinese culture is old and totally embedded; it’s unlikely to change dramatically in the near future.  Unfortunately, most governments have allowed themselves to become too reliant on China; something which was China’s deliberate policy; call it “Economic Capture”.  But the USA, through being the largest economy in the World, realised China’s plans were nearing the end-game and pulled the trigger of the trade war.  This is probably Donald Trump’s most significant policy.

But, many governments are already variably captured by China’s strategy.  It’s easy to identify which countries this applies too; just see who supports China at the United Nations.

So what can be done?

The most effective way of countering China's approach is to not buy any products from them.

Boycott Chinese made products and services.

How can this be done?

Firstly, governments need to legislate that any products or services originating from China must be clearly identified on the product itself and made totally clear in all advertising plus retail and online market places.

The penalty for not doing this should be a very large fine plus a ban on the sale of the entire company’s products in the respective country.

You may not be aware of the huge volumes of Chinese products that Amazon stocks around the World, so as to be able to supply it quickly to consumers.  You may have noticed the somewhat odd names of sellers on Amazon’s Marketplace?  Invariably these are Chinese retailers or manufacturers trying to be less obvious.  I find it interesting that Amazon is facilitating the global sale of Chinese products, in order of course, to make money for Amazon.

You can understand why President Trump is not very enamoured with Jeff Bezos?

Secondly, each and every one of us should decide whether the money we spend on Chinese products or services, is acceptable, or not.

It wouldn’t take much to persuade Americans, Canadians & Europeans to ensure they understand where their consumer items are manufactured and either reduce or stop buying them.

It should send a powerful message to President Xi if, for example, America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and EU all legislated along these lines.  The degree of Economic Capture should start to unwind plus, foreign companies manufacturing in China for export will, almost certainly, look at alternative options.

Who knows what would happen, if the average Chinese person gets to understand that their own government was the ultimate origin of their drop in living standards, caused by a decline in exports…